000
WTNT42 KNHC 060837
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010
500 AM AST WED OCT 06 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED BANDS OF DEEP AND CURVED CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.  IN ADDITION...NIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED SINCE
YESTERDAY.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A TROPICAL 2.0 FROM
TAFB...AND A SUBTROPICAL 1.5 FROM TAFB.  WHILE THE LOW IS NOT FAR
FROM BEING MORE TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...ITS CURRENT LARGE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AT LEAST 120 N MI...AND ITS ENTANGLEMENT
WITH AN UPPER LOW LEAD ME TO START THE SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH
A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO MOVE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT LOW...WHICH WOULD
PLACE IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHTER
WIND SHEAR.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE MODELS
WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS
LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BECAUSE IT COULD
TAKE SOME TIME TO SHED ALL OF ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY HALT ANY STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
INITIAL SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE...AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM.  

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 325/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE RIDGE SHOULD BE ERODED AWAY
IN A DAY OR TWO BY A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO SLOW DOWN BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE BY EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
OVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD FOR A WEAK SYSTEM AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SEEMS LIKELY BY 96 HR...IF NOT
SOONER...AS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.    


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 22.2N  67.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 23.0N  67.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 23.6N  68.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.2N  67.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  66.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 28.0N  60.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     11/0600Z 36.5N  37.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al172010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010061949
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
      OTTO, AL, L, , , , , 17, 2010, TS, O, 2010093006, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL172010
AL, 17, 2010092912,   , BEST,   0, 130N,  352W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010092918,   , BEST,   0, 133N,  371W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010093000,   , BEST,   0, 136N,  390W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010093006,   , BEST,   0, 139N,  409W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010093012,   , BEST,   0, 141N,  428W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010093018,   , BEST,   0, 144N,  447W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010100100,   , BEST,   0, 148N,  465W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100106,   , BEST,   0, 153N,  482W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100112,   , BEST,   0, 157N,  497W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100118,   , BEST,   0, 163N,  510W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100200,   , BEST,   0, 168N,  525W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100206,   , BEST,   0, 171N,  540W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100212,   , BEST,   0, 172N,  551W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100218,   , BEST,   0, 173N,  562W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010100300,   , BEST,   0, 174N,  574W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010100306,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  587W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 17, 2010100312,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  602W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010100318,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  614W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010100400,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  626W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 17, 2010100406,   , BEST,   0, 175N,  634W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100412,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  638W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  250,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100418,   , BEST,   0, 178N,  642W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  250,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100500,   , BEST,   0, 181N,  646W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  250,  75,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100506,   , BEST,   0, 186N,  650W,  25, 1006, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  300,  75,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100512,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  653W,  30, 1006, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  300,  35,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100518,   , BEST,   0, 206N,  657W,  30, 1004, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  300,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100600,   , BEST,   0, 214N,  663W,  30, 1002, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  300, 120,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 17, 2010100606,   , BEST,   0, 220N,  672W,  30, 1001, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  240, 120,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,  SEVENTEEN, S,
AL, 17, 2010100612,   , BEST,   0, 227N,  677W,  35,  996, SS,  34, NEQ,   90,    0,   70,   90, 1008,  240,  80,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,  SEVENTEEN, M,
AL, 17, 2010100618,   , BEST,   0, 230N,  683W,  45,  991, SS,  34, NEQ,   90,    0,   70,   90, 1008,  240,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OTTO, M,

Se ve preciosa, por cierto parece como que forma el ojo...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 062050
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010
500 PM AST WED OCT 06 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHEN INTO
SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO. CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75
PERCENT AROUND THE BROAD INNER CORE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM 1500-FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 63 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS
VALUE IS CLOSE TO THE 48 KT CREDIBLE SFMR WINDS OBSERVED IN THE
SAME AREA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. VISIBLE AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL
COLD LOW...LOCATED PREVIOUSLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...HAS MOVED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW SITUATED
ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OTTO
IS STILL A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THAT IT IS ALSO GRADUALLY
ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OTTO IS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHERE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND GRADUALLY NUDGE OTTO ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BY 36 HOURS. BETWEEN 72
AND 96 HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY POSE A
THREAT TO THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

OTTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...AND THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF
THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR OTTO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY 96 HOURS...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS AND THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 23.2N  68.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 23.8N  68.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  67.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.5N  66.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  63.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 30.3N  55.8W    55 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 34.5N  44.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  31.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART