000
WTNT43 KNHC 112032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BEYOND
THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND
EARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA
IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND
ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE.

BASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2100Z 16.0N  84.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N  84.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  86.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  86.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N  86.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N  85.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Sube a cat.2, ante la sorpresa del NHC 
Veremos a ver si no estamos a las puertas de un proceso de RI

Citar

AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.