UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A UNAS 360 MILLAS ESTE-SURESTE DE LAS
ISLAS BARLOVENTO DEL SUR SE HA ORGANIZADO MUCHO MAS EN LA MANANA...Y
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTAN CONDUCENTES PARA DESARROLLO DE UNA
DEPRESION TROPICAL O TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EXISTE
UNA PROBABILIDAD ALTA...80 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE
CONVIERTA EN UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS A
MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE 15 A 20 MPH.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE LO QUE PASE CON SU DESARROLLO...SE ESPERA QUE
ESTE SISTEMA PRODUZCA LLUVIAS FUERTES LOCALMENTE Y VIENTOS EN
RAFAGAS EN LAS ISLAS BARLOVENTO...PORCIONES DEL NORTE DE VENEZUELA
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA CITADO
PARA INVESTIGAR EL DISTURBIO ESTA TARDE.

Tomas' formation location unprecedented this late in the season
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.

The formation of a tropical storm so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (60°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 60°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 60°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic Ocean on October 29. There have been only four hurricane seasons since 1851 that have had two simultaneous named storms later in the year. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.