es simplemente perfecto en su belleza 

Esta madrugada flipé desde el curro, en la hora del bocata, cuando descargué con el Iphone la última imagen del canal visible de RICK....................... Una belleza increíble!! Con el efecto estadio destapado por completo

Está perdiendo fuelle.

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RICK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AROUND
THE EYE...AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST TOPS HAS DECREASED. 
ALSO...THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS THINNED...WITH A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ABOUT 100
MILES FROM THE CENTER. CONSISTENT WITH THESE TRENDS...SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED. DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS
WERE 6.5/7.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 140 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND RICK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT STILL LIES
ABOVE THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND RICK WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL. RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. RICK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 135W AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE RICK TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE HOW QUICKLY RICK WILL MOVE AS IT
RECURVES. BY 72 HOURS...THE ECMWF...GFDL AND GFDN ARE CONSIDERABLY
FASTER...WHILE THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SLOWER.
THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW
RICK INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...
GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST...RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN
TWO OR THREE DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN
BAJA AND ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.4N 109.4W   140 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W   130 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.3N 111.7W   120 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W   105 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.7N 111.4W    95 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 26.0N 106.5W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Aunque parece que se ve bastante tocado por su lado oeste.... ahora mismo es un huracan de fuerza 4... esta espectaular

Todo queda recogido en el primer párrafo del boletín de discusión del CNH: está penetrando aire seco en la estructura del ciclón, la cizalladura está aumentando (del SW), y el flujo de salida de niveles altos también está quedando más apartado............ En definitiva y afortunadamente para los habitantes de California, RICK está perdiendo fuelle de forma progresiva y definitiva...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190834
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

AS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION. 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONES.  BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN
THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO
WEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9.  THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  A
SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO.  RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH.  THEN...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN.   THE ENVELOPE
OF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE
SOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST.
THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING
OUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

SINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT
AND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W   105 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Es increíble cómo la cizalladura interviene en la estructura de un ciclón tropical.......... RICK aparece a estas horas sufriendo un colapso de su estructura, que se está desmoronando precisamente por esa cizalladura del SW.

Fijaros que bien se ve esto que comentaba en el modo multisensor........ Se ve la estructura destruída y toda la convección al E del centro... Si mantiene vientos de 100 KT será por la ley de conservación del movimiento y su inercia, más que por su estructura...

El que fuera un coloso, ha sucumbido al ambiente hostil, y RICK es actualmente una tormenta tropical, en su proceso de debilitamiento gradual...

todavia con 50kts-990mb