ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMHurricane Maria Discussion Number 6NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since thelast advisory and has continued to expand in size. The Air ForceHurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximumflight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt. Thecrew also noted the formation of an open eyewall. Based on thesedata and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH$$Forecaster BergNNNN
Viendo la animación del visible, han hecho más que bien en subirlo a huracán de categoría 1...No tengo muy claro si está consiguiendo librarse del aire seco, porque parece que lo rodea por todo su sector oeste...
HRD/AOML/NOAACuenta verificada @HRD_AOML_NOAA 9 minHace 9 minutos #NOAA42 (red line) 1st pass through #HurricaneJose to collect Doppler radar data for #HWRF. #NOAA49 (yellow line).
000WTNT45 KNHC 180836TCDAT5Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 8NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017Maria is maintaining a fairly circular area of intense convectionwith some accompanying banding features. There has also beenconsiderable lightning occurring near the center over the pastseveral hours, confirming the vigor of the core convection. Thecurrent intensity is set at 80 kt which is a blend of Dvorakestimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Unit HurricaneHunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Maria in a couple ofhours and will give another estimate of the strength of thehurricane. With warm waters and weak shear anticipated along theprojected track of Maria, additional strengthening is forecast.According to the SHIPS-RI guidance, there is a significantprobability of rapid intensification over the next day or two. Theofficial intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus andthe latest HWRF simulation. Maria is likely to be at category 3 or4 intensity by the time it moves into the extreme northeasternCaribbean Sea.Geostationary satellite fixes and the position estimates from theMartinique radar give a motion of about 290/11 kt. A high pressurearea to the north of Maria should maintain the west-northwestwardmotion for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, thehigh weakens and this should cause a turn toward thenorth-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to theHFIP Corrected Consensus model as well as the ECMWF and lies on theleft side of the guidance suite.KEY MESSAGES:1. Maria is likely to strengthen significantly, and is expected tobe at major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of theLeeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind,storm surge and rainfall hazards.2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands andPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricanewatches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islandsas well as for Puerto Rico. Interests in these areas should monitorthe progress of Maria and follow any advice given by localofficials.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 18/0900Z 14.6N 59.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.8N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.6N 63.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.4N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 19.0N 67.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 21.0N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH120H 23/0600Z 23.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH$$Forecaster Pasch