A BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OFTHE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING CONCENTRATEDSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTERDEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLYCONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHOF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARED TO BEBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT REMAINED CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OFCIRCULATION...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER ISNOT YET WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOBE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONCOULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARDNEAR 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OFTHE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.