1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OFTHE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ALTHOUGHTHE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OFORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATIONAT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.