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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG



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93L sube a nivel rojo... a ambos sistemas se les ve muy saludables

Pues el del Caribe tiene buena pinta, se está organizando más rápido de lo que esperaba.




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El GOM puede obrar milagros... No sé como andará el pronóstico de cizalladura


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Por otro lado, aunque la 92L se mantiene en un "querer y no poder", HWRF lo intensifica de forma repentina en pleno GOM para llevarlo a las costas de EEUU como huracán....

No veo descabellado este pronóstico... a tenor de lo que se huelen los predictores del CNH...

LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y OBSERVACIONES EN LA SUPERFICIE INDICAN
QUE EL DISTURBIO UBICADO EN EL EXTREMO NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE SE
HA VUELO MENOS ORGANIZADO DURANTE LA NOCHE Y LA MAYORIA DE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y
BELIZE. EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ANTES DE MOVERSE SOBRE TIERRA
SE HA TORNADO MENOS PROBABLE...SIN EMBARGO AUN EXISTE POTENCIAL UNA
VEZ EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTE SISTEMA
TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...50 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN
UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y UNA
PROBABILIDAD ALTA...60 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS.