000
WTPZ43 KNHC 171451
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  EP032010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BECOME
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  A
1215 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MOVED THE PRECURSOR LOW FROM THE
DEPRESSION MUCH TOO QUICKLY TO THE WEST...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS
BEEN ENTANGLED IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THAT FEATURE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/1500Z 15.3N 105.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 105.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N 105.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.7N 106.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 107.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE