Nueva INVEST por la esta zona del pacífico

INVEST 97E

20kts-1009mb

Eso mismo estaba mirando yo ahora. El CNH le da un 40% de posibilidades de formacion, con lo cual nivel naranja:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH OVER COOLER
WATER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

Veremos haber si sigue fortaleziendose

El JTWC lanza aviso de formación tropical para las próximas horas 

WTPN21 PGTW 050000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 95.3W TO 15.4N 100.3W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

INVEST 99E

25kts-1007mb



Buenas condiciones para su desarrollo, tanto de SST como de cizalla.

Tenemos una nueva depresion tropical en el Pacifico Este,

Tropical Depression NINE-E


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220832
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED AS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER...ARE NOT
WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE SHIPS OUTPUT...THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CENTER VERY CLOSE
THE COAST OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE COAST...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK CONSENSUS.

IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0900Z 13.7N  94.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.7N  95.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.8N  96.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N  98.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N  99.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 102.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 107.0W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Posdata: Cuando podais abrid el topic.

NHC le da 60% de probabilidad de desarrollo

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Nueva área de INVEST

INVEST 96E

35kts-1001mb