En la madrugada, hora peninsular, FUNA ha seguido intensificándose, pero parece que no ha llegado a mostrar ojo aún........ Me resultan raros los ciclones tropicales que se forman en el hemisferio sur
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 18/0235 UTC 2008 UTC.
**** CORRECTED WORDING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [960HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 17.4S
172.2E AT 180000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES
OF CENTRE, AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE.
DEEP CONVECTION COOLING AND ORGANISATION INCREASING. COLD SPIRAL BAND
TO EAST CONSOLIDATING WHILE WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
EAST, FAIR TO SOUTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. CIMSS MAINTAINS DECREASING SHEAR
OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK. CYCLONE STEERED TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. DVORAK BASED DT=4.5,
PAT=4.5 AND MET=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON THE SOUTHEAST TRACK.
FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 19.2S 173.3E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 20.8S 174.2E MOV SSE 09KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 22.6S 175.3E MOV SSE 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 25.5S 174.6E MOV SSW 15KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC FUNA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 180830 UTC.
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