18/1430 UTC    19.4S  174.1E    T5.0/5.0             FUNA

Según este dato de la técnica DVORAK, FUNA ha seguido intensificándose. De hecho, el ojo se reestructuraba ya aparecia con mejor definición y el anillo convectivo lo rodeaba mejor. Sin embargo, en las últimas actualizaciones de las imágenes del satélite, el ojo se está volviendo a degradar........ Da la impresión de que está perdiendo intensidad...

Atención, porque el dato que daba al principio supone que FUNA habría alcanzado la categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson

  pues..... ojo a la vista....   105kts ---944mb

Menuda sorpresa, el fuelle que ha cogido al final

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SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 006   
WTPS31 PGTW 182100   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FUNA) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 174.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 22.6S 175.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

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Parece que como límite podría alcanzar los 110 KT de vientos sostenidos, más de 200 km/h

FUNA conserva aún su ojo.......... Hay mucho retraso en la hora a la que se ofrecen y actualizan las imágenes del satélite

Creo que se esta volviendo extratropical

Buf.................... Ya podemos ir despidiéndonos de FUNA............................. Buen seguimiento !!

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type

-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 01/16/08  15.1S 164.6E    40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/16/08  14.8S 166.2E    65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/17/08  15.5S 169.0E    75       Category 1
18 GMT 01/17/08  16.5S 171.1E    80       Category 1
06 GMT 01/18/08  18.2S 172.8E    90       Category 1
18 GMT 01/18/08  19.9S 174.2E    120       Category 3
06 GMT 01/19/08  22.1S 175.2E    120       Category 3
18 GMT 01/19/08  25.9S 175.2E    85       Category 1

Adjunto el último boletín de aviso disponible del servicio meteorológico de FIJI:

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 19/1345 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [930HPA] CAT 4 NEAR 23.9S
175.4E AT 191200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTH AT 13 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40
MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 65 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION STEADY PAST 12 HOURS BUT CONVECTION WARMED MARKEDLY.
IRREGULAR EYE PERSISTS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. CIMSS SHOWS
MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR THAT EXISTS ABOUT 25S WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SST. DVORAK BASED MG SURROUND AND WMG EYE
YIELDING DT=4.5 PT=5.5 MET=5.0, THUS T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON POLEWARD ACCELERATION TURNING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS
THEN SOUTHWEST WITH WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 28.1S 173.5E MOV SSW 23KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 30.2S 170.0E MOV SW 20KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC NEAR 32.9S 167.9E MOV SSW 16KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC NEAR 36.4S 167.8E MOV S 18KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC FUNA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 192030 UTC.

© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service

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