Pues veo muy bien consolidado a este ciclón. Incluso diría que los 45 KT oficiales de la NRL se quedan algo escasos viendo la imagen de microondas en donde se aprecia que la convección quiere envolver a una estructura que yo catalogaría como ojo incipiente...
Yo le daría 50-55 KT... Veremos próximos partes de la JTWC.
El último parte de discusión es muy interesante:
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
THE EFFECTS OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUT-
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT CONSOLIDATION, HOWEVER PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
B. TS 05W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
161200Z SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING
A 160942Z WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICTING STRONG BANDING WRAPPING IN TOWARD
A CONCENTRIC LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 3.0 FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. WHILE GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
EVIDENT ON BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM,
THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ISSUE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SUB-
TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES MOUNTAINOUS CENTRAL LUZON BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36.
UPON REACHING THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA NORTHEAST OF LUZON
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AIDED BY A BRIEF INCREASE
IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
C. NEAR TAU 72, CONTINUING INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL INDUCE A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND RAPID EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE EX-
TENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
Hay bajos valores de cizalladura sobre HALONG, aunque se podría decir que está atrapado entre campos de intensa cizalladura. En estas condiciones, y por su proximidad a las Filipinas, no parece que tenga recursos para que asistamos al nacimiento de un monstruo, aunque cabe alguna posibilidad de que alcanzase fuerza de tifón, si bien es difícil. Parece que su vida terminará como la de MATMO, en una transición extratropical y posterior disipación.