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Autor Tema: Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018  (Leído 29859 veces)

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Bien, ya la tenemos aquí! ;)

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated
.

Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center.  However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question
.  Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.

Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow.  After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 33.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 33.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 33.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 33.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
« Última modificación: Octubre 03, 2018, 12:27:49 pm por Gale »

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #1 en: Septiembre 23, 2018, 18:15:27 pm »


Su aspecto no es muy de ciclón subtropical todavía, pero si se ha decidido emitir avisos en ese sentido, y sobre todo siendo Avila, es porque lo es...

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #2 en: Septiembre 24, 2018, 18:51:12 pm »
Desde ayer prácticamente no ha habido cambios significativos en LESLIE, que está girando a rumbo este, a la espera de ser absorbida por un frente, y dar lugar a una nueva baja...

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's
cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a
few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.
Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35
kt.  The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models
show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a
mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the
cyclone.  Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after
completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will
deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly
in the northwest quadrant.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects this
scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt
within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow.  A turn to
the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude
trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over
the central Atlantic.  The deterministic guidance indicate that the
aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48
hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low
pressure system.  Subsequently, the GFS and the European models
still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening
with time.  For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging
scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low
forecast points through day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 32.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 10:13:28 am »
LESLIE ha degenerado en depresión subtropical, pero... se espera que se convierta en un poderoso ciclón post-tropical a partir de mañana... Veremos, porque el proceso se antoja muy complejo.

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Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this
evening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced
to the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with
the highest wind occuring in those bands.

All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated
transition over the next several days
. Little change is expected
with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After
that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly
strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely
reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same
time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from
frontal low to warm seclusion
while the wind field rapidly expands,
with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from
the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will
once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could
begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics.
While
each of the global models handles the exact details of this complex
evolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie
will become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central
Atlantic over the next few of days
. The NHC intensity forecast has
been increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the
global and regional dynamical model tracker output.

The depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial
motion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie
will accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an
approaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week,
followed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as
Leslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the
mid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been
significantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids
at most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in
the guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period,
so confidence in the track forecast at that time is low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 33.1N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 32.9N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  26/1200Z 34.5N  41.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/0000Z 36.2N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/0000Z 36.9N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  29/0000Z 36.5N  47.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  30/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 10:25:06 am »
La interacción entre LESLIE y una vaguada atlántica está a punto de comenzar...



Merece la pena desgranar el análisis del último boletín del CNH sobre LESLIE:

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All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated
transition over the next several days. Little change is expected
with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After
that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly
strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely
reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same
time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from
frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands,
with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from
the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will
once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could
begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics.

Todos los indicadores apuntan a que LESLIE va a realizar una complicada transición durante los próximos días. Se esperan pocos cambios en LESLIE mientras pasa a ser post-tropical en unas 24 horas. Después de este tiempo, todos los modelos globales sugieren que LESLIE se va a profundizar rápidamente como resultado de sustancial forzamiento baroclino, que probablemente alcanzará su pico de intensidad en algún momento entre +48 y +72 horas. Al mismo tiempo, el ciclón probablemente realizará una transición clásica desde baja frontal a seclusión cálida, mientras el campo de vientos se expande rápidamente, con vientos de 34 nudos alcanzando varios cientos de millas desde su centro. A partir de +96 horas, los modelos indican que LESLIE, de nuevo, quedará aislada del flujo de media latitud, pudiendo re-adquirir características tropicales o subtropicales.

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 16:25:27 pm »
Interesante recurve hacia el oeste...
Si no fuera por la Meteo...

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 17:50:14 pm »
LESLIE es declarado ciclón post-tropical... yo diría que un poco precipitadamente...

Resulta muy destacable el hecho de que el aviso indica que LESLIE, como ciclón post-tropical, alcanzaría vientos con fuerza de huracán :o :o :o Cómo lo podríamos llamar a esto? HURACÁN POST-TROPICAL? ;D ;D ;D ;D

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

Leslie has become a post-tropical cyclone.  Conventional and
microwave satellite imagery show that Leslie's surface circulation
has become elongated along an intruding baroclinic zone indicated
by a recent 1158 UTC ASCAT-A pass.  Any deep convection appears to
be developing due to dynamic forcing.  A rather large stratocumulus
cloud shield and associated cooler, stable air is quickly advecting
into the area as well. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt
for this last advisory.

Leslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due
to baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and
European global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity
guidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane
force in 2 days
, around the same period that the shear drops below
10 kt.  The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the
strong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary.
According to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase
forecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to
an asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion.  Beyond day 3, guidance
suggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a
more symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker
steering currents.  The intensity forecast follows this scenario and
is based on the aforementioned global and statistical models.

Leslie is now moving eastward at a slightly faster forward motion,
about 10 kt.  A turn to the north is expected in 36 hours followed
by a slower westward motion as Leslie slips south of the
mid-latitude westerlies.  Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, Leslie should move at a slower speed generally westward
as a ridge builds to the north. NHC forecast is nudged toward the
TVCN consensus through 48 hours, then follows more closely to the
GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus model.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Leslie.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 31.6N  44.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/0000Z 32.1N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 33.6N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 35.6N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z 36.1N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/1200Z 35.5N  45.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 96H  29/1200Z 34.6N  48.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
120H  30/1200Z 34.4N  49.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

$$
Forecaster Roberts

« Última modificación: Septiembre 25, 2018, 17:56:10 pm por Gale »

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #7 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 19:02:43 pm »
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RT Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
@RyanMaue

"The remnants of Subtropical Storm Leslie are in the process of rapidly deepening into an extratropical storm across the central North Atlantic -- and then in 2-3 days, possibly transition into a Subtropical or Tropical storm -- which would be reborn as Michael"


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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #8 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 19:21:33 pm »
Hay posibilidades a medio plazo de un acercamiento de este sistema a Canarias?

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #9 en: Septiembre 25, 2018, 22:04:44 pm »
Hay posibilidades a medio plazo de un acercamiento de este sistema a Canarias?

Por ahora, no...

En otro orden de cosas, durante casi todo el día, en la animación de imágenes VIS del GOES-16 se observa que LESLIE mantiene intacto, por ahora, un centro de circulación de niveles bajos... A ver durante el día de mañana qué ocurre.


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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #10 en: Septiembre 27, 2018, 19:35:48 pm »
Estado actual de EX-Leslie, como ciclón extratropical ocluido, pero comenzando a subtropicalizarse...




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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #11 en: Septiembre 27, 2018, 23:20:34 pm »
Bishio podderrosso... je, je, je.
Si no fuera por la Meteo...

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #12 en: Octubre 03, 2018, 14:06:35 pm »
LESLIE ya es huracán... :P

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Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better
organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in
infrared satellite images.  A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass
revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken
convection surrounding it.  T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were
4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt.  This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane
of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear
over the next day or two.  These conditions should allow for some
additional strengthening.  After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving
over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later
in the period.


Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that
the cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end.  A
shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge
to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward
by tonight.  A northward motion is then expected to continue over
the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn
eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic.
The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this
scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the
next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United
States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.
These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult
products from your local weather office as these conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 29.6N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 29.7N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 30.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 32.8N  57.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 35.0N  57.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 37.1N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 37.0N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 37.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #13 en: Octubre 03, 2018, 14:07:46 pm »
Leslie, un ciclón extraordinario. Posible episodio de DANAs en la Península y Canarias.



La actualidad meteorológica de este 3 de octubre de 2018 viene cargada de información: necesaria referencia al extraordinario ciclón “Leslie” (a continuación te contamos por qué), y a la posible formación de dos DANAs que provocarían un importante cambio del tiempo en la Península y Canarias.

http://www.cazatormentas.com/leslie-un-ciclon-extraordinario-posible-episodio-de-danas-en-la-peninsula-y-canarias/

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Re:Huracán LESLIE 13L categoría 1, Atlántico Central, septiembre 2018
« Respuesta #14 en: Octubre 03, 2018, 14:09:59 pm »
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Brian McNoldy
@BMcNoldy

Hurricane #Leslie becomes the Atlantic season's 6th hurricane... ten days after forming. It will not impact land.


 



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