Efectivamente, ya la tenemos aquí evil evil Y el CNH le augura una progresión muy cierta, por lo que puede ser el primer Cape-Verde Type Hurricane evil

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS.  AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST.  ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11.  THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS.  THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1000Z 14.4N  28.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.6N  30.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N  32.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N  34.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.2N  36.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  41.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N  45.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N  49.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

No sé si lo habíamos comentado ya, pero Jeff comentaba el otro día que desde 1992 (17 años, por tanto), no había otro comienzo de la temporada tan tardío.......... Contando con que de esta DT salga ANA...

Esta es la vida de la 02L como DT.

Tracking Info For Tropical Depression Two     
        
 

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 GMT 08/11/09  14.4N 28.6W     30       1006     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/11/09  14.6N 29.6W     30       1006     Tropical Depression


Anda estable.

El ensemble lo mete hacia el oeste:



Poco a poco enfila al Caribe.

La depresión está a puntito de recibir el nombre oficial de ANA, aunque su vida va a ser muy efímera, debido a su trayectoria sobre aguas marginalmente favorables en temperatura, y un ambiente que irá ganando cizalladura. Esto es lo que viene a decir el boletín de discusión nº4 del Centro Nacional de Huracanes:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS.  EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 30 KT.  EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED...THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11...AS THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  THE HWRF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE
MODEL SUITE...IMMEDIATELY TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PATH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SPREAD OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...EVEN IN THE LONGER
RANGE...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH.  THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM.  LATER
IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A
PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH.  THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND.  THEN
AGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE
SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.8N  31.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N  33.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.8N  35.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N  37.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.2N  40.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N  45.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N  51.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  56.5W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN

A Ana le falta un soplido para nacer, está a puntito si no lo es ya.

se esta haciendo de rogar la chica 

¿Dónde se ha metido?  A ver si al final Bill va a ser Ana como ya apuntó alguien por aquí 
Vamos a ver si sobrevive, si permanece mucho tiempo en estado de letargo la trayectoria será más plana hacia el W y tardará más en girar al NW, veremos veremos...