Esta depresión se mantiene, más muerta que viva... El CNH sigue emitiendo boletines de discusión sobre ella, seguramente para curarse en salud, por si acaso:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 131433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOO FEW TO GET A DATA-T
NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  SSMI/DATA AT ABOUT 09Z
SUGGESTED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT IS USED
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  SSM/I AND AMSR-E PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED ALMOST ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION.  THESE
FACTORS...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...MAY BE PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OVERALL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
IF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS WOULD
LIKELY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY THE
BAMM AND BAMS MODELS.

THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND GFDN SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
WITH THE HWRF MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 120 HR.  BASED ON
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.  THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL
WAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.0N  37.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.0N  39.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.2N  41.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.4N  43.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.8N  46.6W    25 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  52.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 18.5N  59.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  66.0W    25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

El aspecto de lo que queda de la 02L, que yo no hubiera finalizado los avisos sobre este sistema, ha mejorado durante la tarde, con una convección más presente sobre el LLCC de niveles bajos:



Además, tal como decía Parungo, ojo a lo que haga en días venideros. Este mapa prevee que en un par de días se coloque sobre aguas con un OHC muy decente, que será un campo abonado para su desarrollo, con permiso de la cizalladura, que ya veremos cómo se encontrará entonces:

Y va para una zona donde la temperatura oceánica ronda los 28-29 grados, desde aquí no puedo ver donde si el polvo sahariano está justo encima o se ha alejado un poco de la DT 2.... qué me dicen ustedes?

Coincido con Gale, ahora se ha tornado mejor y pareciera recobrar algo de lo perdido, ojo con esto que tal vez emerja nuevamente con nuevos bríos...

Pues aquí está de nuevo, jejejje :D1 Y dispuesto a coger fuerza !!!

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150426
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM
A NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED
ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY
ALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES
IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES.

RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR.  GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF
MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY
TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A
HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0430Z 14.6N  45.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.7N  47.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  51.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  58.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  65.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 25.5N  76.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

El CNH acaba de sumarse :D1 :D1 :D1

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


 
 

Interesante trayectoria de Ana ,casi todos los modelos apuntan a Miami.

ruta futura un poquitin mas baja de la que se tenia en un principio