En el último boletín sobre CINDY, de nuevo se nota un poco de sorpresa, por la persistencia del ciclón pese a condiciones hostiles de SST y cizalladura. Vamos, lo que decía yo anoche... Que estos sistemas son increíbles. Son resistentes a todo, aguas frías y cizalladuras

000
WTNT43 KNHC 220258
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

CINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING
TO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED
BASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE
OF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE
COLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT
23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED
PREVIOUSLY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A
CIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 43.5N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 45.9N  39.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 49.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1200Z 53.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

Sin duda, sigue luchando por sobrevivir, en un ambiente completamente hostil para un ciclón tropical

000
WTNT43 KNHC 220846
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM
SAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS.

CINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

CINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF
IT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 44.5N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 46.7N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 50.0N  29.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 52.7N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Efectivamente, sigue mostrando un aspecto bastante decente y aún con convección



Por otro lado, esta es la imagen que presentaba ayer en algunos momentos, completamente parecida a varios INVESTs formados en temporadas anteriores, entorno a Azores, y que sólo quedaron como eso, INVESTs...

Ciertamente son eventos totalmente interesantes.

Y sigue aguantando!! 

000
WTNT33 KNHC 222044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

...CINDY NOW WEAKENING OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.9N 34.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COLD
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND CINDY IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AND DISSIPATE ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN