000WTPZ44 KNHC 290832TCDEP4TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early thismorning, with some deep convective banding features trying todevelop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system doesnot yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it isbelow tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement withDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensityis held at 30 kt based on those estimates.The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward thewest-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level highpressure area that is currently situated to the north of thecyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area willshift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weaknessdeveloping to the north of the tropical cyclone later in theforecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow itsforward speed within the next couple of days. The official trackforecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to thelatest ECMWF solution.The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core arguesagainst any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear isforecast to remain low and the system will be traversingsufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the nextfew days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to thelatest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to theintensity model consensus thereafter.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH$$Forecaster Pasch