Uf, el CMC es el modelo que más miedo da. Situa a la DT 06L entrando por Puerto Rico, Sur de la Española, Sur de Cuba y península de Yucatán, entrando en el GOM y explotando como huracán mayor. :</O
Pues nada, a esperar toca. :O* :O*

yo pienso que algo asi sera su trayectoria, otra vez el foro de cazatormentas se le adelanto al nhc

Nose pero me da la sensación que 06L en las ultimas imagenes se ha movido un poco hacia el oeste/suroeste. O por lo menos asi se aprecia en la conveccion que esta tiene. Haber si nos da una sorpresa y manda los modelos a revision.  >-<

tengo la misma sensacion, yo creo que nos dara la sorpresa, su trayectoria me recuerda al huracan Hilda

Yo crei que ya era Depresion Tropical. Parece ser, como comentan algunos compañeros, que se ha movido al Oeste Suroeste beer

esa sensacion es la que todos creemos ahora, es muy claro poder distinguir como toda la conveccion esta mucho mas al sur de donde dice estar el CNH, aver si no se relocaliza mas tarde su centro, no creo que se vaya muy al norte como lo pintan los modelos, asta ahora sigue al oeste, y segun lo modelos ya deberia haber comenzado a moverse mas arriba, y eso no a ocurrido, esperaremos aver que sucede, esto esta poniendose interesante :O* :O* :O* :O* :O*

293
WHXX01 KWBC 152000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

PER5DON PERO DEPRESION TROPICAL?
aun no es...s i bien ya hay circulacion cerrada a mi parecer y vientois de hasta tormenta tropical... el NHC no ha dicho que sea Depresion....
si es una DT tal vez... pero oficialmente sigue siendo INVEST...
a como lo veo el azote del sistema sobre estas islas va a ser algo duro y la imagen IR que colgo ANGETOTTI lo demuestra....y respecto al CMC que comentan al parecer el GFDL esta my de acuerdo respecto a esa intensigficacion.. pero en unos dias (:O*) (:O*)

Tenemos derecho a adelantarnos a las agencias oficiales, que nostros no cobramos ni un euro (ni un dolar $ ) por esta labor

15/1745 UTC    18.1N   68.6W    T2.5/2.5              92L  --  Atlantic Ocean

Por fin ya es Tormenta Tropical Fay  :O*

Por fin.... Aunque las primeras trayectorias lo mandan hacia Florida como Tormenta Tropical. Yo no se que pasara con la trayectoria, aunque sinceramente penso que, se metera al Canal De Yucatan, para luego recurvar hacia el NW

000
WTNT31 KNHC 152039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN