Ya la tenemos aquí, y será GRACE...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051445
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the
disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better
organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is
not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a
good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a
mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were
available at the time of this advisory.

The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global
models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt
any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will
weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered
north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of
a general westward track for the next 3 days.  After that time,
the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn
more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed.
This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not
acknowledge the existence of a cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 12.3N  25.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 12.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 12.8N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 13.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 13.5N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 14.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 15.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 15.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]

Grace se está fortaleciendo poco a poco... ¿Será una repetición de DANNY? De momento no es lo pronosticado, pero lo mismo ocurrió con Danny cuando nació...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060840
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015
500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

Deep convection has become better organized during the past several
hours, with a more pronounced curved band developing to the west
and south of the center.  Recent microwave imagery, especially a
0331 UTC GCOM pass, showed a surprisingly well-organized inner core,
with the low-level center located a little farther south than
previous estimates.  Subjective Dvorak estimates are T3.0/45 kt from
TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore
raised to 40 kt.  If Grace is as well organized as suggested by the
microwave data, this intensity could be conservative.

With the slight southward adjustment of the initial position, the
estimated motion is now 270/11 kt.  Grace is located due south of a
mid-tropospheric anticyclone, and a ridge axis extends westward
across the Atlantic to north of the Lesser Antilles.  This pattern
is expected to change little during the forecast period, which
should keep Grace on a general westward path through day 5.  The
guidance is in generally good agreement, and the updated NHC track
is shifted a little bit south of the previous forecast, mainly to
account for the adjusted initial position.  This solution is a
bit south of the TVCN model consensus and leans closest to the
GFS, HWRF, and the Florida State Superensemble.

Grace will be moving through a low-shear environment for the next
36 to 48 hours, which is likely to support additional strengthening
while it moves westward over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
Between days 3 through 5, while Grace is moving over the central
tropical Atlantic, vertical shear is forecast to increase to over
20 kt and veer from southwesterly to westerly by the end of the
forecast period.  Such a hostile environment should induce weakening
beginning on day 3.  The new NHC intensity forecast indicates
continued gradual strengthening through 36 hours while the shear is
low and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous
forecast.  Weakening could be fast once the shear sets in, and the
day 4 and 5 intensities are unchanged from before.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 12.4N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 12.6N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 12.8N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 13.1N  36.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 13.4N  39.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 14.0N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 14.5N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 15.5N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[archivo adjunto borrado por el administrador]