000WTNT41 KNHC 231428TCDAT1SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1120071100 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THECIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE ASUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THESYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY. THECYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUDSWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OFOPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ANDTO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURESAND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATIONPROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICALCYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELYTO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ASJERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIANMARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLYSTEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PULL JERRYTOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED. THIS ISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OFTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 23/1500Z 36.0N 46.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 37.3N 45.8W 40 KT...TROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1200Z 39.7N 44.0W 45 KT...TROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0000Z 44.0N 40.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE$$FORECASTER PASCH
si se moviera al E tardaria mas en perder las caracteristicas tropicales las aguas por ahi son de 26-27 grados hasta bajar a 20 :</Osaludos
Cita de: angetotti en Septiembre 23, 2007, 16:34:56 pmsi se moviera al E tardaria mas en perder las caracteristicas tropicales las aguas por ahi son de 26-27 grados hasta bajar a 20 :</OsaludosLa pena es que está el Anticiclón de las Azores desplazado al E de su posición habitual, y no va a dejar pasar a la perturbación. Esa configuración sinóptica la va a mandar al NE, fijo.