Depresion Tropical 01C




25 kts - 1011 mb?




Que buen sistema ha nacido. Podriamos estar ante una caso parecido al de Huracan IOKE

Pues sí, recupera fuelle y le bautizan con el nombre de KIKA. Me gustaría que Angetotti, llevara razón. A ver como evoluciona en las próximas 48 horas.
Saludos.

Bueno, pues como decía Sudoku, este ciclón ha vuelto a coger fuelle y ya es tormenta tropical de forma oficial:

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070831
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2008
 
HERNAN'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF A NEAR-CENTRAL REGION OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...AND
THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM BUT
IS IMPEDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT
BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME IMPACT...
HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
AMENABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST
TECHNIQUES.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD BEGIN TO PASS
OVER COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO
COMMENCE AT THAT TIME.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 295/12.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF HERNAN SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...HERNAN IS LIKELY TO BE NEARING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING SHALLOWER...AND BEING MOVED MORE BY
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THEREFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  THIS IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFDL MODEL IS AN
OUTLIER AS IT SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN THE REST OF THE
MODEL SUITE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 14.5N 114.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 15.1N 115.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N 117.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 119.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.2N 121.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Pusiste la discusion de Hernan. NO la de KIKA :DDD

Los avisos apuntan a que irá cogiendo fuerza muy lentamente, pero parece que no logrará pasar de los 45 KT de vientos sostenidos, una tormenta tropical media...

Cita de: Gale en Agosto 08, 2008, 20:51:10 pm

Los avisos apuntan a que irá cogiendo fuerza muy lentamente, pero parece que no logrará pasar de los 45 KT de vientos sostenidos, una tormenta tropical media...

Que mal, ya es una depresion tropical. El centro nacional de huracanes de Honolulú no le da chance de que vuelva a ser Tormenta Tropical, sin embargo persistira hasta que llegue al pacifico oeste, a jurisdiccion del JTWC

Es que viendo el mapa de THC, tiene posibilidades de llegar vivo al Pacífico Oeste en donde sí podría explotar a gusto... :</O

Ahí sigue KIKA.................. Y hoy adjunto el mapa de OHC que comentaba ayer.................... Si llega vivo al Pacífico Oeste, ya veremos lo que pasa con él... :O*

Es interesante la línea ascendente en intensidad, según los pronósticos del Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

WTPN32 PHNC 101000 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//     
RMKS/ 
1. TROPICAL STORM 01C (KIKA) WARNING NR 014   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 160.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 160.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 10.1N 162.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 10.6N 165.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 11.1N 168.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 11.6N 171.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 12.3N 176.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 12.8N 177.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 13.3N 172.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 161.0W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 09E (HERNAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Lo que no deja intensificar a KIKA debe ser la cizalladura, he leido que a veces, en el pacifico central, las condiciones no pueden mantener vivo a un ciclon tropical, salvo que sea en los meses de agosto y septiembre, en donde ocurren ciclones frecuentes en esta cuenca, aunque no se intensifican rapidamente :O*