000
WTNT35 KNHC 231749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 76.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF
HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO LIMON...INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Veremos que tanto cambian el track
 

Esta muy rara su trayectoria , pero ya se estaba tardando en formarse, pero ya empieza a agarrar circulacion que como que era lo que le faltaba ayer. Mientras en Quintana Roo se mantiene la alerta azul, a las 6 PM el gobernador del estado volvera a dar un informe.

Pues esperemos que cambie su trayectoria Gale, porque de ser asi habrian muchas muertes en Nicaragua y Honduras porque son paises que no estan preparados para este tipo de fenomenos, sinceramente prefiero que nos pegue a nosotros donde las perdidas serian solo materiales, que alla donde serian humanas.

Y perdon me equivoque ahora en 2 min se enlaza el sistema estatal de proteccion civil para dar un comunicado, ya avisare si cambian o no la alerta en Q.Roo.

No veo nada clara esa trayectoria que plantea el NHC, cuando ni el GFS ni el Europeo plantean eso.

Yo de momento no veo ni remotamente una reedición de Wilma. Demasiadas incertidumbres y demasiada interacción con tierra.

El NHC corrige la trayectoria, para ir más acorde con el ECMWF y GFS, ahora la interacción con tierra es mayor y por tanto, la previsión de intensidad cae en picado.



Además está cizallado del NE debido a ese potente anticiclón en altura.