Brian McNoldyCuenta verificada @BMcNoldyThe 1916 Gulf Coast Hurricane looks familiar... I hope #Nate doesn't intensify like it did just before landfall! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Gulf_Coast_hurricane …
Eric FisherCuenta verificada @ericfisher 3 minHace 3 minutos#Nate is currently over an area of very high ocean heat content. Thankfully not for too long, but intensification inevitable.
Josh MorgermanCuenta verificada @iCyclone 5 minHace 5 minutosDecent satellite presentation this afternoon. Convection *trying* to wrap around that center. By the way, it's moving fast! #NATE
Eric FisherCuenta verificada @ericfisher 53 sHace 54 segundos#Nate stronger at 5pm...winds up to 60mph and pressure down to 993mb. Further intensification likely tonight.
Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 10NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convectionassociated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strongconvective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way aroundthe center. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the centersuggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and thebuoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt. Based onthis, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative50 kt. The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrivenear 22Z.The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nateremains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over thewestern Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge ofhigh pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination shouldsteer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so.After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goesaround the western edge of the ridge and recurves into themid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreementwith the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreementon the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, butslightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for thecenter of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of theYucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northernGulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that theECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track.Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up tolandfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to makelandfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which isan update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of theintensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is stilla possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crossesthe Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecastof steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additionalstrengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMETforecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h beforelandfall.KEY MESSAGES:1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near orover the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringingdirect impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Atropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for aportion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is alsopossible.2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions ofthe northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effectfrom Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line inFlorida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuationinstructions given by local officials.3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northernGulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protectlife and property should be rushed to completion in theseareas.4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolatedtotals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into theeastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through thisweekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in theseareas.5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portionsof Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,Panama, and Belize through tonight.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/2100Z 20.3N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.0N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 26.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 29.9N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.1N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 39.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 43.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic OpsCuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic 9 minHace 9 minutosHere are the key messages for Tropical Storm #Nate as of 4:00pm CDT. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for metropolitan New Orleans.
BULLETINHurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 11ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017100 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017...HURRRICANE NATE BOOKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.5N 86.5WABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBAABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVERMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:NoneSUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake PontchartrainA Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida* Northern and western shores of Lake PontchartrainA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico* Pinar del Rio Cuba* Lake Maurepas* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton CountyLine.A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Lake Maurepas* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton CountyLine* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City LouisianaA Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass FloridaA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana* Isle of Youth CubaA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should berushed to completion.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from thecoastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National WeatherService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available athurricanes.gov.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and thenorthern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor theprogress of Nate.For storm information specific to your area in the United States,including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitorproducts issued by your local National Weather Service forecastoffice. For storm information specific to your area outside theUnited States, please monitor products issued by your nationalmeteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was locatednear latitude 23.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. Nate is movingtoward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this generalfast motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A turntoward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a turntoward north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the centerof Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and onSaturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coastSaturday evening or Saturday night.Reports from Air Force aircraft indicate that maximum sustainedwinds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday up until thetime Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)primarily to the east of the center.The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaisanceaircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue withinthe tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next fewhours. Tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warningarea in Cuba overnight, and are still possible in the watch area inCuba during the next few hours.Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected inthe hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical stormconditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions areexpected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areaSaturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in thetropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerousstorm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near thecoast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from theshoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heightsabove ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to6 ftMouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to8 ftAlabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6ftOkaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ftIndian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ftThe deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and tothe east of the landfall location, where the surge will beaccompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-relatedflooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidalcycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For informationspecific to your area, please see products issued by your localNational Weather Service forecast office.In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast inareas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacentislands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large anddestructive waves.RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rainaccumulations through Monday:Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into theDeep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturdayafternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around thenorthwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells arelikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please consult products from your local weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.$$Forecaster Avila