joder, que conveccion lleva probablemente hablemos de un futuro tifon.

Pues nada, adquiere nombre y le toca NISHA. De momento, se mantiene como TS

45kts-989mb

Mmmmm...   viendo mapas, veo que la cizalladura está al límite y el SST también. Quiero decir con esto que la cizalladura por donde está se encuentra entorno a los 20 kts y el SST está sobre los 27-28ºC. Aunque viendo la trayectoria del mismo, se meterá en aguas más frías y con cizalladura prohibitiva (de 50 kts).





 :O*

Una vista general de donde se encuentra 


 
:O*

Dejo tercer boletín del JTWC 

281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 164.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 281136Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS WELL AS DEEP,
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 10P AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH TAU 96 WHEN NISHA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT REORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, TC NISHA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS (>28
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDN MODEL WHICH
TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD DUE TO A FORECAST OF WEAKER INTENSITIES.
THIS FORECAST FOLLOWED THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

Gradual intensificación debido al ambiente favorable, como por ejemplo, el SST 
 :O*

Ahí sigue 

35kts-996mb

Lo que no me gusta es el aire seco que le está entrando por el cuadrante SW, puede que haga perder fuerza al sistema 

En el sat. se ve bien (lo marrón) 



 :O*

Poco durará NISHA debido a la intrusión de aire seco en un centro 

35kts-996mb

Último boletín también para este sistema 

300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 162.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291613Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED AND SHEARED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, WITH UKMET, GFDN, AND NOGAPS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND ECMWF AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//
 :O*