Boletín JTWC 270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 137.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS YET TO EXIT INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. BORROLOOLA, THE NEAREST REPORTING STATION TO THE LLCC,
IS REPORTING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 994.1 MB, WHICH GENERALLY
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A 35 KNOT CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ENTER THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS A
TRANSITORY, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. ALL AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR,
INDICATE A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EAST WITHIN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS
THIS RIDGE WEAKENS, MID TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING FORCE AND WILL TRACK THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE EAST, DEEPER INTO THE GULF. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM 28 DEGREES CELSIUS (C) NEAR THE COASTLINE
TO OVER 30 C FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WILL SUPPORT MARKED
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 OLGA WILL TRACK BACK OVER
LAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.// Parece que no tienen muy claro donde se encuentra el
LLCC, aunque lo colocan en el mar. Lo que si tiene claro es que cuando salga hacia el mar de nuevo, cogerá fuerza debido al
SST favorable en la zona en que se encuentra, con aguas de
28-30ºC. Y a eso se le suma la
baja cizalladura en esa zona también que está entre los
5-10 kts, favorables también. La cizalladura en tierra es mayor y concretamente en el lugar donde podría entrar, la cizalladura se encuentra con valores más altos.