Tenemos a ZETA olvidado hoy, y no hay que olvidar que sigue vivo. Además la discusión número 9 del National Hurricane Center es muy interesante, ya que indica que a pesar de que la cizalladura vertical del viento está haciendo presión sobre ZETA, éste no se está debilitando y se mantiene intacto. Además de esto, hay un modelo que pronostica su transición a huracán en 3 o 4 días, lo que sería una completa pasada, jojojo

Esta es la discusión:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 011433
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ZETA...BUT THIS SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STORM.  IN FACT...THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE
VIGOROUS...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DENSE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN... REMAIN AT 45 KT.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO ITS NORTH AND SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSES 45 KT OF SHEAR OVER ZETA...THIS IS LIKELY AN OVERESTIMATE
RESULTING FROM AVERAGING THE FLOW OVER TOO LARGE OF A HORIZONTAL
AREA SURROUNDING THE STORM. NONETHELESS THE GFS 200 MB WIND
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR ON ZETA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN GIVEN BY SHIPS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL INTENSIFIES ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. SUCH A SCENARIO IS BEING REJECTED AT THIS
TIME...SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A POSITIVE INTENSITY
BIAS FOR SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...240/2.  AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS... THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW LEVEL
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE COMPETING FOR THE STEERING OF ZETA.
AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION.  A WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ZETA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 25.2N  38.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 24.9N  39.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.8N  40.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.9N  41.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/011433.shtml

Alucinante ZETA... En la imagen IR adjunta se observa una mayor simetría de ZETA incluso casi con un ojo visible

A pesar de esto, en la discusión número 10 del National Hurricane Center del NOAA tienen claro que el declive de ZETA empezará pronto...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 012032
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...ZETA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RELAXED
SLIGHTLY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS...
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOON AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS
OUTPUT...SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50 KT ON ZETA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
THIS IS LIKELY AN EXAGGERATION CAUSED BY AVERAGING OVER TOO LARGE
OF A HORIZONTAL AREA AROUND THE STORM AND...POSSIBLY...TOO DEEP OF
A VERTICAL LAYER.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALCULATES THE SHEAR FROM THE
850 TO THE 200 MB LEVEL.  PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SHOW THAT ZETA HAS A RATHER SHALLOW WARM CORE SO IT MAY
NOT HAVE AS DEEP A VERTICAL EXTENT AS MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND
IT MAY NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC...I.E. NEAR 200 MB...WINDS AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL
STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS
RAPIDLY AS SHIPS.

ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN A PARTIAL COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP
TODAY...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  ASSUMING THAT THE STORM WEAKENS AS
FORECAST...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND MORE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK AND NARROW LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GOES
ALONG WITH THAT IDEA...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 25.0N  38.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 24.7N  39.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N  40.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 24.4N  41.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 24.4N  42.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/012032.shtml

Jejejeje, está bien esa observación, Dani

Discusión número 12 del National hurricane center del NOAA:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020830
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ZETA IS HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
QUIKSCAT AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45
KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SHEAR INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF
T3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ZETA MAY HAVE MADE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT AND
INFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
STEERING ZETA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYS1S PRODUCTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A
DECREASE IN THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INDICATING. HOWEVER... BY 24-36 HOURS... ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR
AWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING. EVEN THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0900Z 24.5N  39.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 24.4N  40.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N  41.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 24.2N  42.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 24.2N  44.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/020830.shtml

Del texto se entiende que ZETA no va a sufrir muchos cambios en su intensidad en las próximas 12h ya que parece que la cizalladura se mantiene estable y que la temperatura a 200 mb va a bajar, lo que mantendrá activa la convección, como hasta ahora. Eso sí, el modelo que ayer consideraba la posibilidad de su transición a huracán en 3 días, ya no indica tal probabilidad. Seguiremos los últimos pasos de ZETA, hoy visiblemente "desmejorado" en las imágenes del satélite.

La caña, aun le da posibilidad de ser huracan ! 

Por cierto que esta a un meridiano de Canarias 

Pues esta mañana no tenía muy buen aspecto, pero esta tarde la convección ha vuelto a intensificarse y la "pelota" que forma ahora es preciosa e interesante A ver si da sorpresas estando donde está, sin causar daño a nadie...

Esta es su vida completa, dentro de poco saldran nuevos datos:

17 GMT 12/30/05 25.0N 36.9W 50 1003 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 12/30/05 25.3N 37.3W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 12/31/05 25.9N 37.5W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 12/31/05 26.0N 37.7W 60 997 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 12/31/05 25.9N 38.2W 60 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 12/31/05 25.7N 38.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/01/06 25.6N 38.3W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/01/06 25.7N 38.5W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/01/06 25.2N 38.6W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/01/06 25.0N 38.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/02/06 24.7N 38.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/02/06 24.5N 39.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/02/06 23.6N 40.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm

Por cierto, la ultima informacion "oficial" que ha salido es que se mueve direccion suroeste, a ver por donde tira esta noche porque podria entrar en una zona donde la cizalladura tiende a decrecer bastante, podria intesinficarse algo...

Bastante bonito esta tormenta tropical, si se acercara!

ahi va la discusion del noaa la numero 14:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 022031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  ZETA HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF
INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS
ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC.  NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM
WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAKENING.  OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND
MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS.  THIS IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 23.5N  41.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.1N  42.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  43.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 23.0N  44.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N  45.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED