WTPA41 PHFO 291511
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062013
500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013

THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE WAS HIDDEN BY HIGH CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE VIRS NIGHTTIME VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. WE
RE-BESTED THE 0600 UTC POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE DATA.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES CONTINUED SHOW CURRENT INTENSITIES OF
3.0 BUT SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A RAPID WEAKENING TREND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IT IS LIKELY THAT CONTINUED NORTHWEST
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THIS WEAKENING TREND.
 
THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH TO REFLECT THE RE-LOCATED CENTER.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTED FOLLOWING THE TRACK CHANGE AND WAS
CONSISTENT WITH A NEW TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK NOW
SHOWS FLOSSIE PASSING OVER MAUI TODAY...OVER OAHU TONIGHT...THEN
PASSING SOUTH OF KAUAI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT FLOSSIE TO
WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST AND DISSPATE WITHIN 96
HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 20.5N 153.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 20.9N 155.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 21.7N 159.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 22.5N 163.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 23.5N 166.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 24.5N 171.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON