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...Spain and Portugal...

In the southern parts of Spain and Portugal, some low-end instability is present ahead of an approaching upper trough. MLCAPE in order of 300 - 500 J/kg is forecast which coincides with 15 - 20 m/s deep layer shear. 0-3 km shear is in order of 15 m/s and locally enhanced SRH may allow some organized multicells and / or supercells which could produce some isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Convective initiation should be almost certain as QG lift ahead of the trough should be strong enough to overcome the small CIN barrier. The greatest chance for a severe thunderstorm should be present during the afternoon / early evening hours, shortly after initiation took place when most storms are still discrete. A low-end level 1 should be warranted.