Nivel 1
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 27 Jan 2007 06:00 to Sun 28 Jan 2007 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 26 Jan 2007 20:40
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS
A baroclinically unstable flow is present over the northern Atlantic and Europe with an intense high pressure area just west of France and United Kingdom. Very cold air spreads southward downstream of this high pressure area, covering most parts of eastern Europe.
Compared to the past few days, conditions for thunderstorm development over the Mediterranean will become somewhat worse, but still a few convective events can be expected.
...Strait of Gibraltar and parts of extreme SW-Mediterranean...
A nearly stationary and slowly weakening UL low over the Strait of Gibraltar will support an environment for scattered thunderstorm development. The threat will start to decrease during the late evening hours ( 18Z onwards ) due to warming at mid-levels from the south.
Any developing thunderstorm would pose a risk for severe to damaging wind gusts, given DLS of about 40m/s.
Don't want to exclude an isolated tornado report over extreme S-Spain, where strengthening onshore flow will support an overlapping area of low-end instability and significantly enhanced LL shear. Therefore, extreme S- Spain was also included into the level-1 area.