Buenos dias!!!

Comenzamos nuevo mes, esperemos que tengamos bastante fiesta... por el momento esto es lo que nos pone Estofex...



SYNOPSIS

High over eastern Atlantic ridges into Iceland area ... and first arctic air outbreak of this season goes on over central Europe during the forecast period. Well-developed cold front is forecast from northern Iberian Peninsula to northern Mediterranean Sea ... northern Italy ... to eastern Baltic States on Wednesday, 12Z. Intense CAA is expected to supress deep convection. Best chances seem to exist over the North Sea, where warm sea surface should support shallow convective cells ... but thunderstorms seem to be relatively unlikely given LI of 4 . Although strong winds will be present ... vertical wind shear is not forecast to be favorable for organized convection.

DISCUSSION

Central Mediterranean

In the wake of the Alps ... lee cyclogenesis is forecast over Italy. Southerly/easterly winds are expected over northern/central Mediterranean ahead of the cold front. Rather moist low levels and height falls in the range of approaching upper trough should lead to increasing instability ... and thunderstorms are forecast to form. As DLS should increase during the day ... thunderstorms should organize. Limiting factor should be rather weak QG forcing and stable layers above the boundary layer. However ... severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are not ruled out.

Suerte a todos!

Que buen comienzo de mes, ESTOFEX nos da posibilidades        :<<O           

No creo que se cumpla 

Tormentillas en el Golfo..

UYYYY el nivel 1 para mañana     :<<O

SYNOPSIS

Bitterly cold air ( locally as low as -25°C at 700hPa and -40°C at 500 hPa ) continues to flood areas east of Germany - Italy.... This airmass is characterized by low dewpoints and very steep mid-level lapse rates.... Upslope flow along the Carpathian Mountains and aforementioned very steep lapse rates should be enough for a very isolated ,short lived and weakly electrified storm to develop, but expected coverage will be too low for highlighting any specific area.
A well developed LL depression is forecast to evolve north of the Black Sea, moving rapidly towards the North, while a broad upper-level low should continue to affect parts of Portugal and Spain.

DISCUSSION

...Portugal and SW Spain...

Broad upper-level trough will continue to stall between the Azores and Portugal.... Same procedure at lower levels with an SW-NE elongated LL depression west of Portugal....
An interesting note is that GFS and UKMET both see a shallow warm core evolution with this system, which would support an increase in convection around the center, but latest IR images and model outputs do not look excessively supportive for any significant ( possible subtropical )development.
Main concern for scattered TSTM activity continues to be along the belt of rich subtropical moisture, stretching all the way up to Portugal and SW Spain.... 12Z sounding of Lisboa ( 02.11.) already showed nice veering at low levels and some slight cooling during the next 12 hours at the mid-levels should support slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates and hence more robust instability values.
A slightly enhanced tornado risk exists mainly in the level-1 area due to low LCLs and some veering, but main threat should be an excessive rain risk due to very high PWAT values and slow storm motion.


Estofex lo está clavando... tormentas intensas por Huelva

Por fin se ha actualizado el puñetero mapa  vaya toronera tienen por Huelva y Sevilla 

Vaya mapa            Alli tienen que estar viendo un espectaculo que te cagas         :<<O