Prevision de Estofex para hoy, atentos de nuevo a Huelva-Cadiz-Sevilla-S y centro de Portugal y quizas también serrania de Ronda... (estamos al limite)
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 24 Oct 2006 06:00 to Wed 25 Oct 2006 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 24 Oct 2006 03:28
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS
The vigorous low pressure area that affected northern France and the Benelux most yesterday is weaker today and most associated active weather moves from the Benelux to northern Poland during the period.
At 12Z the GFS lays the cold front from southern Denmark to Czech Republic and northwestern Italy. A back-bent occlusion will trail over The Netherlands and northern Germany. The warm front touches southern Sweden and later Finland, where already a stationary sharp frontal boundary is present, with a neutral to unstable airmass.
The sharpest temperature/moisture contrasts will be found around the southern Alps as the cold front takes fairly long to remove the warm airmass at the lee side. Some instability will be present and locally released.
A renewed surge of warm air around Portugal will keep convection around.
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..Portugal, southwestern Spain...
A similar situation as we have seen the past week. A few hundred J/kg MLCAPE can enter the land and interact with a very strong shear environment, LLS of more than 15 m/s, DLS more than 30 m/s, and 0-3 km SREH up to 400 m2/s2 are certainly dangerous combinations for
violent supercells (large hail, significant tornadoes, severe gusts).... LCLs are low and LFC is fairly high in the GFS model so there is some capping or maybe rather elevated convection, but this seems to be caused by very saturated, neutral lower levels - not an obstacle to initiation and rather a catalyst for tornadogenesis ... Reason for not issuing a level 2 at this time is fairly low instability and lack of a more dynamical trigger.
Most activity is anticipated to start during the late evening hours, with low-level convergence near the Spain-Portugal border. Like last week,
significant amounts of precipitation are forecast which can lead to local flash flooding.Saludos!
Tema: Seguimiento de tormentas: octubre de 2.006. Localización, evolución... (Leído 24612 veces)