... N-Spain and far N-Portugal...

No major change in the synoptic pattern is anticipated. However with a downward strength of the mid/upper level vortex forecast, mid-level lapse rates start to relax a bit. Despite that, constant onshore flow from the Bay of Biscay advects a moist air mass far inland. The cap remains strong along the coastal areas but expect another round of initiation along the mountains around noon onwards. Compared to yesterday, wind field at 700 to 500 hPa weakens by roughly 5 to 10 kt, so shear will be weak with 0-6 km bulk shear at or below 10 m/s. Forecast soundings reveal fat mid-level CAPE profiles, so despite missing shear, 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE should still assist in numerous intense pulsating thunderstorms, which grow upscale betimes into numerous erratic and cold pool driven thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and a few severe downbursts are forecast next to isolated heavy rainfall due to the expected slow storm motion.
During the night, thunderstorms continue with a gradual decrease in strength due to lowering CAPE. However, regions like Castile and Leon, La Rioja, Navarre and Aragon may see a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms due to increasing SW-erly winds at 500 hPa and 10-15 m/s DLS. An isolated large hail event will be the main hazard.

The level 1 was expanded all the way to the E-central coast of Spain, where shear will be stronger, favoring a few mutlicell events during the afternoon/evening hours with large hail and strong to severe wind gusts.