Prevision para hoy...
PREDICCIÓN
INTERVALOS DE CIELOS NUBOSOS CON NUBES DE TIPO ALTO PRINCIPALMENTE, CON NUBOSIDAD DE EVOLUCION EN LAS SIERRAS DEL INTERIOR, DONDE HABRA CHUBASCOS LOCALMENTE MODERADOS Y ACOMPANADOS DE TORMENTAS. TEMPERATURAS MAXIMAS EN LIGERO ASCENSO. VIENTOS DEL SUR O SUROESTE FLOJOS A MODERADOS EN EL INTERIOR Y DE COMPONENTE OESTE FLOJOS, ALTERNANDO CON BRISAS, EN EL LITORAL.
(c) INM
CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 27 Jun 06:00 - Tue 28 Jun 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 26 Jun 23:42 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across parts of central, northern and eastern Spain
SYNOPSIS
Monday at 06 UTC... a mid/upper closed low is expected just west of northern Portugal. A cold front is expected to extend southward from a closed surface low over the central Bay of Biscay to southern Spain. East of this front and south of a warm front over northern France a very warm air-mass is present. A cold front over eastern Europe extends over the southern Ukraine, northern Romania, Hungary and into Austria and is expected to move southward during the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
...Spain...
Numerical models including NMM (2612) and GFS (2612/18) predict seveal weak vorticity maxima to translate northward over eastern Spain. As a result periods of forcing for upward motion will probably affect eastern Spain as well. Despite the fact that GFS does not develop too much convection, present thinking is that strong insolation should be able to create a few 100's of J/kg of weakly-capped MLCAPE, that will be released in a couple of storms forming during the second half of the afternoon over the slight risk area. Strong...around or above 20 m/s... deep-layer shear will likely allow some storms to become supercells with a main threat of causing severe winds and large hail. Clustering storms may form small northeastward-moving bows that provide an additional wind threat.
Saludos y suerte
Tema: Seguimiento meteorológico del mes de Junio. (Leído 45624 veces)