Estofex se moja!!!!
CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 13 Sep 06:00 - Wed 14 Sep 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 13 Sep 00:31 (UTC)
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS
High pressure is building over Europe in a zone from western France to southern Finland. The core of an old upper low remains over Italy. This is also where 12Z soundings have indicated the most unstable airmass, up to 1900 J/kg MLCAPE50. Weaker instability is present over southeastern Spain (several hundred J/kg), and Austria/Slovakia (several hundred J/kg) into the northern Balkan and Ukraine/Russia ahead of the cold front that pushes southeastward. Strong activity of frontal disturbances are seen over Scotland and Norway, where some isolated thunder may happen from elevated convection.
DISCUSSION
...southern Spain area...
Slow-moving storms can be expected to flash flood some areas, and GFS predicts strong LL buoyancy which may easily induce
waterspouts/tornadoes. DL shear is moderate and may act to sustain storm clusters. However total instability and dynamics are weaker than past week, translating into lesser storm coverage, this is certainly also reflected in the weak GFS precip rates.
Viene a decir que en las zonas del sur de España el lento movimiento de las tormentas pueden provocar rapidas inundaciones en algunas areas, y el GFS predice gran LL que podria inducir facilmente en waterspout y tornados. El DL es moderado lo que puede actuar para agrupar nubes tormentosas. La inestabilidad y dinamicas atmosfericas son menores que la semana pasada, traduciendose en una menor cobertura tormentosa, esto es lo que refleja el GFS con pequeña cantidad de precipitacion....
Saludos y suerte!
Tema: Seguimiento meteorológico SEPTIEMBRE 2005 (Leído 74656 veces)