000WTNT44 KNHC 221504TCDAT4HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920111100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERYINDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTERORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLYAND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LASTCENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOTFORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...ANDTHE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THEOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE ACATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THISIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND INFACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THECENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMINGA LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORMFORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENEIS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH ISFORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OFTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGHALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORENORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIODWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUTSTILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT ISTOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREATTO SOUTH FLORIDA.DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSEFORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH$$FORECASTER AVILA
Punta Cana esta tarde... sólo se ha visto afectada por el cuadrante SW de Irene, el más débil, poca cosa como bien se ve en el vídeo.[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq6Pjxar7Ao&feature=share[/youtube]
Cita de: Fox en Agosto 22, 2011, 21:46:38 pmPunta Cana esta tarde... sólo se ha visto afectada por el cuadrante SW de Irene, el más débil, poca cosa como bien se ve en el vídeo.[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq6Pjxar7Ao&feature=share[/youtube]Hola Fox...como ves soy hombre de palabra,la mía de Bávaro tampoco estaba mal