000WTPZ23 KNHC 280835TCMEP3HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP1320150900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 121.0W AT 28/0900ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.12 FT SEAS..100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
000WTPZ43 KNHC 290852TCDEP3HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015Jimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight witha symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrusoutflow in all quadrants. The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,a blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.While large-scale environmental factors are still favorable forfurther strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through aneyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can causefluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,Jimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the nextseveral days. A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanicand atmospheric conditions will only gradually become lessconducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.The new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and thestatistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight onthe intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.The initial motion estimate is 270/8. Jimena's heading shouldbecome west-northwestward later today and continue in that generaldirection for the next several days while it moves around thesubtropical ridge. As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the newtrack forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar tothe adjustment made on the previous advisory.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W 100 KT 115 MPH120H 03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W 85 KT 100 MPH$$Forecaster Blake
油井 亀美也 Kimiya.Yui @Astro_Kimiya 2 hHace 2 horasHurricane JIMENA. It's really scary to see the eye of the hurricane closely...
000WTPZ43 KNHC 300251TCDEP3HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015Jimena continues to undergo an eyewall replacement, with significantinner-core structural changes seen in satellite data throughoutthe day. Microwave images show a small inner eyewall rotatingaround an irregularly-shaped outer eyewall at about 60 n mi radius,the latter which could be slowly contracting. Although Jimena'scloud pattern has fluctuated some during this period of inner-corechange, its overall organization has remained about the samesince the last advisory. Satellite classifications seem to bearthis out, with intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 ktfrom SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 0000 UTC. These are blendedwith the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 6.1/117 kt to keep the initialintensity estimate at 120 kt.The intensity forecast is challenging. The large-scale environmentis forecast to remain relatively favorable during the next day ortwo, apart from some north-northwesterly shear associated with acold low to the northeast of Jimena. This could allow anopportunity for reintensification if the current eyewallreplacement fully plays out, but predicting intensity fluctuationsdue to inner-core dynamics is nearly impossible and beyond thescope of this forecast. Thus, a slow decrease in intensity isindicated in the new forecast as large-scale conditions onlygradually become less conducive. This is a blend of thestatistical-dynamical guidance. As Jimena gradually gains latitudelater in the forecast period, global models show a minor increase inwesterly shear while other thermodynamic factor remain generallyneutral, except for slowly decreasing SSTs. These factors suggestsa slow decay of the cyclone, and the new intensity forecast is inagreement with the latest multi-model consensus that shows amonotonic decrease in intensity from days 3 to 5.The eye of Jimena has been wobbling quite a bit, but smoothingthrough these yields a faster initial motion estimate of 295/11.Jimena should continue moving west-northwestward during the next fewdays as it approaches the western end of a subtropical ridge around140W. A weakness in the ridge around this longitude should induce asignificant deceleration by days 4 and 5. The track guidance is inexcellent agreement through the first 2 days, with less-than-typicalspread beyond that time. The new track forecast is faster andadjusted slightly southward and then westward after day 3, but notas far south or west as the multi-model consensus.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/0300Z 13.3N 127.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH$$Forecaster Kimberlain