000
WTPZ45 KNHC 101447
TCDEP5

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE IS APPARENT IN THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND THE EYE HAS
WARMED BY MORE THAN 30C IN INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY
AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...THE SURROUNDING RING OF
COLDEST TEMPERATURES HAS HAD INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN IT. ALTHOUGH
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 110 KT...JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO RECONNOITER JOVA...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JOVA IS BEGINNING TO
IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. FARTHER
EAST...12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE
INCREASED BY 30-50 METERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH MEANS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF JOVA. THE RESULT
IS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY SOON.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-RANGE
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE MODELS
BEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...RECENT
MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A MUCH WIDER VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JOVA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN CONTRAST...THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION AND KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HWRF...
ECMWF...AND TVCN AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
EXTREMES AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. AS A RESULT...
A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS WERE USED IN CONSTRUCTING THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES JUST A TAD EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK.

JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 29C UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOVA COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TODAY. JOVA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE CAN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN...IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME
PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BE AT LEAST
A MAJOR HURRICANE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...
GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH HAVE THUS FAR PERFORMED QUITE WELL
WITH JOVA.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75
AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 16.3N 106.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W  115 KT 135 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110235
TCDEP5

HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011

THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...
AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF
T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL
DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND JOVA WILL BE PASSING OVER 30
DEG C SSTS AS IT NEARS THE COAST.  ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
STRENGTH IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY ONCE
THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE MOTION OF JOVA HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 030/6.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TWO OF
THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS THAT TYPICALLY PERFORM QUITE WELL...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
THIS IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.  IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE NECESSARY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 17.4N 106.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH