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Autor Tema: Gran Huracán JULIA 12L - Cat. 4 - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010  (Leído 1807 veces)

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Gran Huracán JULIA 12L - Cat. 4 - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 12:04:19 pm »
Abro este topic por que seguramente tendremos en las proximas horas a JULIA :D1 :D1

De momento el CNH dice esto:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
« Última modificación: Septiembre 15, 2010, 11:38:33 am por jota »
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Re: Seguimiento 93L - Probable JULIA - Atlantico Este - 09/2010.
« Respuesta #1 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 12:28:17 pm »
Efectivamente; el NHC le da un 90%.
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Re: Seguimiento 93L - Probable JULIA - Atlantico Este - 09/2010.
« Respuesta #2 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 15:53:17 pm »
Para tener a Julia tenemos que esperar un poco.

AL, 12, 2010091212,   , BEST,   0, 125N,  208W,  30, 1006, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  200,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TWELVE, S,





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Re: Seguimiento 93L - Probable JULIA - Atlantico Este - 09/2010.
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 16:18:04 pm »
NHC actualiza y concede 100% de posibilidad de desarrollo  ;)

2. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
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Depresión Tropical TWELVE - 12L - 93L - Cabo Verde/Septiembre/2010
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 16:55:48 pm »
Pues nada. A falta de confirmación oficial por parte del NHC, tenemos a la 12ª depresión tropical

DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL 12L

30kts-1006mb



EDITO: NHC está actualizando en este momento  ;)
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Re: Depresión Tropical TWELVE - 12L - 93L - Cabo Verde/Septiembre/2010
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 16:56:51 pm »
Ya tenemos el aviso del NHC número 1

Citar
000
WTNT32 KNHC 121453
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL122010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 21.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO
TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 17:32:33 pm »
« Última modificación: Septiembre 12, 2010, 21:15:33 pm por juanjometeopuerto »
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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #7 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 21:08:29 pm »
De momento la prevision lo manda a ser un huracán ;)


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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #8 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 23:10:28 pm »
Según reza el último parte de datos sobre al 12L, JULIA está muy muy cerca................. ;)
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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #9 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 23:22:01 pm »
Los modelos le llevan a moverse con más rapidez que IGOR, de modo que se le podría acercar bastante... Otros dos ciclones candidatos para interaccionar en un efecto Fujiwara ;)
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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #10 en: Septiembre 12, 2010, 23:28:09 pm »
Destaco este comentario de Jeff Masters en su blog, sobre el pronóstico de intensidad de este 92L:

Citar
Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.

Comenta que en el momento de escribir el CNH le daba un 50% de posibilidades de desarrollo, pero él le da 70%. Por otro lado, cada vez tiene menos oportunidades de alcanzar Yucatán como huracán, por lo que avanza manteniendo esa desorganización, porque no tendría tiempo. Lo más curioso y que destaco en naranja: que la tormenta puede sufrir otro de sus misterioros colapsos de la convección, en los que pierde la mayor parte de su actividad convectiva :P Vamos, que no se sabe por qué pasa esto ;D Impedimento que ve y que comenta Santi: el aire seco...
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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #11 en: Septiembre 13, 2010, 04:28:40 am »
Hora local de Caracas 10 pm

DT12L

Sobre las Cabo Verde, inminente que amanezca con nombre, Julia

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Re: Depresión Tropical 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #12 en: Septiembre 13, 2010, 05:42:52 am »
Boletin de las 11 pm

A cambiar nombre al tópico

...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE CONVIERTE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL JULIA...LA
DECIMA DE LA TEMPORADA DE HURACANES DEL ATLANTICO...


RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...13.5 NORTE 23.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 110 MILLAS...175 KILOMETROS AL SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE MAS AL SUR
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19
KILOMETROS POR HORA
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS
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Re: Tormenta Tropical JULIA 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #13 en: Septiembre 13, 2010, 10:20:42 am »
Habemus JULIA, y puede convertirse en otro huracán más... ¿Habrá sorpresas con JULIA en este año de temperaturas atlánticas récord? Veremos evil

Citar
000
WTNT42 KNHC 130248
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT
FROM SAB.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMMS ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE
DEPRESSION TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DURING THAT TIME JULIA WILL BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER AND AS A
RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND GFDL MODELS ALL BRING JULIA TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN TWO DAYS
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THEREAFTER...JULIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.  IT IS A BIT SURPRISING
GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE...IF ANY...WEAKENING.  BECAUSE OF THAT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL KEEP JULIA AT 65 KT AT DAYS 3-5 FOR NOW.

THE CENTER OF JULIA WAS RELOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS JULIA
MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF
NEAR 40W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...
UKMET...GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 13.5N  23.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  25.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.9N  27.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.9N  29.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.1N  31.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 20.9N  35.1W    65 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 24.5N  41.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N  46.5W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: Tormenta Tropical JULIA 12L - 93L - Atlántico - Región Desarrollo P. - 09/2010
« Respuesta #14 en: Septiembre 14, 2010, 00:30:10 am »
JULIA sigue fortaleciéndose... Y podría convertirse en otro huracán 8) Veremos si hay Fujiwara con IGOR o no. De momento, es evidente que no.

Citar
000
WTNT42 KNHC 132039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT.
BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A
SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY
...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE LGEM...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD FEEL THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
HOURS AND THEN BASICALLY MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4.
AFTERWARD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER HURRICANE IGOR WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA.  THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR
IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS JULIA WEAKENING
TO A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 295/12.  THE GFS...
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND THE GFDL ARE NOW INDICATING MORE
OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO A
DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF JULIA.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A
SHALLOWER VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE JULIA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO
MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE
MODELS THAT INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 15.3N  27.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  29.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N  30.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N  32.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N  34.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 23.8N  39.7W    70 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 27.0N  46.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 30.0N  49.5W    55 KT

$$
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