000WTPZ64 KNHC 041753TCUEP4HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP1920141100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME AMAJOR HURRICANE...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HASBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFTIS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJORHURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION--------------------------------------------------LOCATION...20.3N 114.6WABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLANDABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES$$FORECASTER BEVEN
000WTPZ44 KNHC 050232TCDEP4HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014After the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today,satellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct andsurrounded by very deep convection. Dvorak subjective andobjective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 onthe Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity wasadjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category FourHurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season.Simon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters,and as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so.Most of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone movesnorthward toward the mid-latitude westerlies. Based on these twofactors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during thenext few days. In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it islikely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.Simon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon isforecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simonnorthward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies,and a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48hours. One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move afterrecurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement inaccelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quiteso fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair atthis time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to beindicated in the next forecast.The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bringanother heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in afew days.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 05/0300Z 21.4N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$Forecaster Avila