000WTNT44 KNHC 260234TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1420101100 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT LISA HAS BEENMOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER BECOMINGEXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAKCLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW...AND THEINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. COOL WATERS...DRY AIR...ANDSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF LISA BY MONDAY UNLESSTHE CYCLONE PULLS ANOTHER SURPRISE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOODAGREEMENT ON THE WEAKENING SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.BASED ON SSMI/S IMAGES FROM EARLIER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEENRELOCATED FARTHER WEST...AND IS MOVING AT ABOUT 340/8. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWOAS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTICOCEAN AND RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE CYCLONE TAKING A TRACK TOWARD THENORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...BUT THESE MODELS ALSO HAVE A MUCH MOREVERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE. SINCE THIS STRUCTURE IS UNLIKELY TOOCCUR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THEGUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT THATIS MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVEVERY SLOWLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS NEAR THE AZORES.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 26/0300Z 24.3N 29.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.3N 29.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 29.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 27.8N 30.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 28/0000Z 29.2N 30.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 31.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z 32.0N 31.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BLAKE
000WTNT44 KNHC 260843TCDAT4TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010500 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE A TOLL ON LISA AS THECENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SMALL AREAOF REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ISLOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATESAND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND COOLSSTS...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND LISA IS FORECAST TODEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HOURS.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTIONIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN ATROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERNAFRICA. THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILDNORTHWEST OF THE AZORES WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TOSLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 26/0900Z 25.1N 29.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 26.0N 29.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 27.2N 30.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 27/1800Z 28.5N 30.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 28/0600Z 29.8N 31.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 31.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z 32.0N 31.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BROWN
Buenos días. Una pregunta... veo por lo que decis que es casi imposible que llegue a rozar Canarias, pero si por casualidad lo hiciera, para cuando lo haría aproximadamente??
Una pregunta : ¿A cuantos kilometros esta Lisa actualmente de las Islas Canarias aproximadamente?