GFS ve una ruta bastante peligrosa merodeando la costa de Quintana Roo casi sin moverse, GFDL ve un Categoría 5 impactando Cancún con más de 140 kts y NOGAPS sigue perdido me parece en cuanto al seguimiento tropical. Veremos como llegue porque la trayectoria apunta a Quintana Roo en estos momentos

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!! Vaya pedo que ha pegado RINA :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O Ha saltado del boletín 4 con 40 KT al 5 ya con 65 KT

000
WTNT43 KNHC 241821
TCDAT3

HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED.  THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS AROUND 65 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING RINA THE 6TH
HURRICANE OF SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK WAS
REQUIRED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1800Z 17.1N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.4N  83.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.6N  84.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.8N  84.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.1N  85.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 19.2N  87.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 20.5N  87.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

I'm Baaaaackk!!!!  hola a todos, he estado muy ocupada con trabajo, escuela y otras responsabilidades, pero se nos viene un huracan encima y este seguimiento no me lo puedo perder  ...

En el norte del estado estamos en Alerta Verde y en el Sur en Alerta amarilla, aqui entre los locales que nos toco vivir el Wilma hemos comparado mucho a Rina con este, la baja velocidad de traslacion, desviacion causada por un frente frio y obvio el Mes de Octubre. Muchos nuevos ya entraron en Panico y se fueron a hacer compras de panico desde ayer, los locales estamos esperando que sea mas seguro el impacto porque no queremos comer Atun por un mes  . Aqui estaremos pendientes y con camaras lista, aunque ya me enoje porque todos los huracanes nos tocan de noche, a excepcion del Wilma que duro mucho pero lo fuerte fue en la noche.

A las 3:30 pm emitira un boletin el sistema estatal de proteccion civil, lo mas seguro es que ya nos cambien a Alerta Amarilla, ya les estare avisando.

En cualquier momento RINA puede convertirse en un "major", alcanzando la categoría 3...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 260607
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
200 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST.  RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  RINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  RINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS
969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Al parecer los modelos ya no ven que llegue a cat.3  Y lo ponen un poco más adentro de la península.. Más lluvias para mi Mérida   

Creen que logre recuperarse a categoría 2 antes de tocar la península ?