000
WTNT43 KNHC 270242
TCDAT3

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED
OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS
DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH
JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI
IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY
THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA
APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 18.5N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 19.2N  86.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 20.4N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 22.5N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...CENTER OF RINA PASSING JUST WEST OF CANCUN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 87.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ALLEN TO SAN FELIPE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RINA SHOULD THEN
BEGIN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER WATER TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND RINA
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN COZUMEL
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
TODAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST....
PRIMARILY ON COZUMEL AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN. THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI