Turno de Dolphin en el Pacífico Noroeste............ Modelos sugieren formación de un nuevo bicho...

Ryan Maue
‏@RyanMaue
Global weather models all suggesting Tropical Storm #Dolphin to become massive Typhoon size-wise near Guam

Del Centro Conjunto de Advertencia de Tifones, o JTWC:

WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD
BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM, TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE
CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS,
IN ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PERSIST. BY
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED 110 KNOTS.
   C.  IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PASSING THROUGH JAPAN. THIS
POLEWARD TRACK WILL EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL GREATLY
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER A POSSIBLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION - APPROACHING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY BY END OF
FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

La animación en infrarrojo todavía es más bestia qué guapada!

WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NM EYE
AS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM, TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, PERSIST. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED 120
KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BREAK
IN THE STR CAUSED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PASSING THROUGH JAPAN. THIS POLEWARD TRACK WILL
EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS INITIAL EXPOSURE WILL ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER RAPID INTENSIFICATION - REACHING SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

90 KT - 956 hPa | No obstante, en las últimas horas, el intenso anillo convectivo ha perdido consistencia seguramente debido a la entrada de aire seco desde el noroeste... Veremos si se trata de un deterioro eventual y si vuelve a coger carrerilla...

Monumental explosión de poder de Dolphin... podría haber alcanzado la categoría de supertifón.

De hecho, la previsión actual de wunderground espera que alcance categoria 5 mañana...menudas bestias se forman en esta region del Pacifico

Descripción gráfica:

Ejemplo magnífico de un ERC completo... caso de libro