Ryan Maue@RyanMaueGlobal weather models all suggesting Tropical Storm #Dolphin to become massive Typhoon size-wise near Guam
WDPN32 PGTW 130900MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 27//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE AS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONCENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGHCONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENTDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSISSHOWS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOWVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARDBIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM, TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACKGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THECYCLONE ISFORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,IN ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PERSIST. BYTAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED 110 KNOTS. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BREAK IN THE STR CAUSED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PASSING THROUGH JAPAN. THIS POLEWARD TRACK WILL EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION - APPROACHING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 131500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 28//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NMEAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDAT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRAREDSATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NM EYEAS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOPWITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ONCONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVELANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM, TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACKGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THESYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PERSIST. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE REACHED 120 KNOTS. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE BREAKIN THE STR CAUSED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROMTHE NORTHWEST AND PASSING THROUGH JAPAN. THIS POLEWARD TRACK WILLEXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITHTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS INITIAL EXPOSURE WILL ENHANCE THEPOLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRIGGER RAPID INTENSIFICATION - REACHING SUPERTYPHOON INTENSITY BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINSIN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACKFORECAST.//NNNN
Met Office Storms @metofficestorms · 2 h Hace 2 horasRainfall radar image of Typhoon #Dolphin. The eye is set to pass between the islands of #Guam and #Rota shortly