BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220131000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.6N 94.5WABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICOABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHESTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220131000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THISMORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING ATROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVYMETEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INGUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILLGIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENTSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS ASMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE ISROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OFMEXICO ON THURSDAY.THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREESAT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROWMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOWPATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH ASLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENTWITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THEPREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSESIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THESTATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OFMEXICO...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THATTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICALSTORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANESEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PMCDT.SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION--------------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.6N 95.1WABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES$$FORECASTER AVILA