000WTNT42 KNHC 042057TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THELOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF ACIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICALDEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KTFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE.THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FORSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGHAWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUETO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTERTHAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANDPOSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THECYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCEENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THEWIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBALMODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER ITLEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TOBAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONEINTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THESOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRALATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ISEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULDCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONECOMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDREDMILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWOFEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BESUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOOFAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWERTHAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THENORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH$$FORECASTER BLAKE
Declaro oficialmente la temporada 2013 como una castaña