Ya se han iniciado los avisos sobre esta depresión tropical, que tiene origen en la depresión tropical 11E que se formaba hace unos días en la Cuenca del Pacífico Este... Tiene papeletas para alcanzar fuerza de tormenta tropical y recibir el nombre de HERMINE

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060251
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR.  ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 20.7N  95.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 21.6N  95.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.3N  96.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.7N  98.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  99.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al102010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060640
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
       TEN, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, TS, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406,   , BEST,   0, 184N,  958W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090412,   , BEST,   0, 186N,  957W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090418,   , BEST,   0, 187N,  956W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090500,   , BEST,   0, 189N,  956W,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090506,   , BEST,   0, 191N,  956W,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  957W,  25, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  160,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518,   , BEST,   0, 200N,  955W,  25, 1004, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600,   , BEST,   0, 204N,  951W,  30, 1003, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  150,  20,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, S,
AL, 10, 2010090606,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  948W,  35, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,   90,   60,    0,    0, 1007,  120,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, M,

Guau... impresionante progresión, creo que nadie lo esperaba

Yo sí Esta tormenta se ha formado a partir de la depresión 11E del Pacífico Este... En cuanto vi que se iba a mover dentro del GOM hice el comentario de ponerle un ojo encima :D1

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060854
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
NOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS
A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.

THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE
OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 21.6N  95.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.9N  95.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 24.9N  97.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 26.8N  98.4W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.8N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 33.2N  99.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Estas tormentas en el GOM son auténticas bombas... Veremos a ver si no le dará tiempo de convertirse en huracán antes de tomar tierra. Según ese boletín de discusión, le quedan al menos 24 horas de estar sobre el agua calentita...

La imagen en microondas es muy explícita... Parece que la tormenta está intentando construir un eyewall

Estaba claro que la actualización de productos sobre HERMINE iba a traer sorpresas... Ahora los pronósticos elevan el pico de intensidad justo por debajo de la categoría de huracán Esta tarde un avión cazahuracanes va a salir a investigar a HERMINE y, como éste siga con esa progresión, seguro que se van a llevar una sorpresa. No es para menos, se han decretado vigilancias por huracán en la costa sur de Texas, por si las moscas

000
WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/1500Z 23.4N  95.8W    45 KT
12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.9N  96.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 36.0N  99.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

HERMINE está muy muy muy cerca de la costa..........   Aun así, el aspecto que presenta es impresionante. Vaya progresión que ha tenido esta tormenta. Y es que el GOM es una fábrica de bombas ciclónicas, terreno abonado para que explote cualquier germen ciclónico que entre, si no hay cizalladura que lo impida.

La siguiente imagen, la última en canal visible disponible, es impresionante

el domingo que viene estare por esos lares

1 semana en el DF y otra semana en playa del carmen..... ya me ire informando desde mi iphone sobre la posible llegada de huracanes mirando por aqui