This month's Copernicus multi-model forecast for Dec-Feb got some attention with its negative NAO signal.The CFSv2 (NCEP model) is not on board, but before it's dismissed, note that it has the best skill in the September hindcasts.Major caveat: very small sample size (N=24)
The latest CanSIPS loses most of the Greenland blocking signal for December, but keeps a strongly blocked pattern for Jan-Feb.The ensemble size of 20 members (combined from the two CanSIPS models) is not as good as most seasonal models, but still - an impressive signal.
CanSIPS data is finally in... the latest update again pushes back the Greenland-Scandinavia blocking, now only a strong signal for February. December very unsettled for W+N Europe.
CFS and European model outlook analog matches for February only include two years from 2000s: 2007 and 2010.Las coincidencias analógicas de perspectivas del CFS y del modelo europeo para febrero solo incluyen dos años desde la década de 2000: 2007 y 2010.