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Autor Tema: Gran Huracán BUD 02E, categoría 3, Pacífico Este, peligro México, mayo 2012  (Leído 1484 veces)


Desconectado Gale

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Sorprendentemente, BUD se resiste a intensificarse, a pesar de que actualmente las condiciones son más favorables para ello... Este ciclón está dando muchas sorpresas :P Parece que ni siquiera llegará a alcanzar la categoría de huracán, en principio.....................

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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230840
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

THE CENTER OF BUD HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT.  A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.5 AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SURPRISING THAT BUD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
.
OVERALL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CERTAINLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING BUD AND NOW THE ONLY
MODEL THAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE GFDL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN 2-3 DAYS...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND DRIER AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  IT APPEARS THAT BUD IS
BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS.  IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AS
BUD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM.  AFTER THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF BUD THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.3N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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BUD por fin ha decidido fortalecerse y de nuevo el CNH contempla la posibilidad de que consiga alcanzar la categoría de huracán...

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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231445
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

RECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW
THAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY
STRENGTHENING
.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO
THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT
AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.

BUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR
70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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A esperar, BUD espero que si se consolida, no llegue a México haciendo desastres.
« Última modificación: Mayo 24, 2012, 00:53:19 am por Miliokos »
Mirar al cielo y pensar...cuanto hay por descubrir.
Fotos realizadas con una Nikon D3300 y una Canon PowerShot SX 260 HS

https://www.facebook.com/pages/El-Rinc%C3%B3n-Balear-de-la-Meteorolog%C3%ADa/454249921346040

Mi Flickr con fotografias variadas
http://www.flickr.com/photos/114391725@N06/

Desconectado Gale

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Finalmente, BUD ha conseguido fortalecerse y alcanzar la categoría de huracán... Ha despistado mucho a los meteorólogos!

Se aproximará a las costas mexicanas pero no hará impacto directo, si no que dará un profundo giro hacia aguas abiertas de nuevo.

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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE
.  A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.  AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO.  THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO.  BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Espectacular la imagen en falso color :o :o :o :o


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BUD sube a categoría 2... y sus peligrosos efectos se ciernen sobre México...

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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241439
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2.  THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT
.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
AIR.  IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...
AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT
MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL.  THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.

BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
030 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS.  THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...
WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON
DAY 3.

DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON
SATURDAY
.  DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN


Desconectado Gale

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Hay un avión cazahuracanes en ruta para investigar a BUD, que ha seguido intensificándose más desde el último aviso............. Y viendo su estructura a través de imágenes microondas, no es descartable que BUD haya alcanzado la categoría 3, convirtiéndose en un "major" :o :o :o :o :o


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Citar
Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 05/21/12  9.3N 99.6W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 05/21/12  9.4N 100.1W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 05/21/12  9.2N 101.0W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 05/21/12  9.6N 101.0W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 05/22/12  9.8N 101.8W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 05/22/12  10.4N 103.0W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 05/22/12  11.1N 104.0W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/22/12  12.0N 105.0W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/23/12  12.9N 105.9W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/23/12  13.3N 106.5W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 05/23/12  13.4N 107.6W     65        997     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 05/23/12  13.9N 107.8W     65        995     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 05/24/12  14.2N 107.9W     70        991     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 05/24/12  15.0N 107.5W     85        980     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 05/24/12  15.7N 106.7W    105        970     Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 05/24/12  16.4N 106.4W    110        962     Category 2 Hurricane

Uffff... Está a punto de caramelo para ser categoría 3 !!!!!!!

El avión cazahuracanes no ha terminado de investigar a BUD correctamente, de ahí que el predictor haya estimado que de momento mantiene la intensidad en 95 KT.

Pero lo más importante es que se ha activado la alerta de huracán en la costa mexicana porque ahora los pronósticos sí contemplan un impacto del centro del ciclón, antes de virar de nuevo hacia aguas abiertas.

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En algunos portales ya aparece BUD como un "major".................. Probablemente lo sea.

Citar
EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD

Desconectado Gale

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Pues no................. Se queda justo debajo de la intensidad de huracán mayor.... ::)

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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
500 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

Desconectado Gale

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BRUTAL................... La última actualización de datos del CNH sobre BUD lo eleva a la categoría de "major"....................... No creo que haya muchos casos similares para un mes de mayo... ::) De hecho, según Jeff Masters, sólo se han producido 2 "majors" en mayo desde que se tienen registros (1949) (:B) BUD se convierte en el tercero...

Además, alcanzará la costa mexicana como huracán, aunque muy debilitado... Mucho ojo los mexicanos!!!

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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
« Última modificación: Mayo 25, 2012, 04:42:16 am por Gale »

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Es bestial.......... :o :o :o El Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida dice que, a partir del análisis de imágenes satelitales en modo microondas y convencionales, BUD se ha convertido en un huracán anular :o :o :o :o :o :o

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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250240
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES
. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.

BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.

HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

No obstante, en las últimas imágenes se observa un deterioro sensible del patrón nuboso del ciclón.......... tiene que haber alcanzado su pico de intensidad.

Desconectado Castell de Santueri (Felanitx)

  • Felanitx, (Illes Balears), 109 msnm, en una zona de campo.
  • Tornado F1
  • *
  • Mensajes: 538
  • Estudiante de Economía y Aficionado a la Meteo
    • Canal de Youtube, predominio de videos de meteorología, naturaleza y fauna balear
como está la cosa de interesante este mes de mayo! records por todas partes,
Mirar al cielo y pensar...cuanto hay por descubrir.
Fotos realizadas con una Nikon D3300 y una Canon PowerShot SX 260 HS

https://www.facebook.com/pages/El-Rinc%C3%B3n-Balear-de-la-Meteorolog%C3%ADa/454249921346040

Mi Flickr con fotografias variadas
http://www.flickr.com/photos/114391725@N06/

 



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